Tuesday, 9-04-07

We have a BUY signal from the close of 8-28-07 for a short term trade. Next week has an up bias into mid day Thursday then it begins to have a down bias. At the next four day cycle low buy signal a low risk buy set up is favored. Next weeks price projections are; up cycle high 1490 low 1466. The alternate projections are high 1478 low 1454. Not trading below 1466 targets 1490.

The chart today displays the SP_500 advance - decline cumulative line. Technically we like to see the AD line leading price. Notice price is up 61.8 retrace and the AD line is only up to the 38 percent retrace? That is a technical warning sign to pay attention to.

Looking at the 60/120 minute charts we have a minor sell set up as the 120 has topped and the 60 dropping sharply. An early weekly low near 1466 to 1454 is expected.

Friday, 8-31-07

Five hours trading at the moving average has started collapsing the 60 minute chart bands. The 120 minute bands are trending sideways so the 60 minute lower band will rise to the 120 band at 1439. Todays projected low is at 1446 making the 1446 to 1439 solid support. Projected high for today is 1463 to 1472. Looking for a low then higher next week to 1490-1500 area.

8-30-07, Intraday

After a fake out lower open the market has chosen the path toward 1480. Once this minor rally completes and drops into a four day cycle low buying for the run at November-December highs can be done. Need to see the 60-minute chart bands collapse and the lower band approached as stochastic is below 1.0 for a low.

Thursday, 8-30-07

The resistance at 1458 was closed above today negating the 1998 20% decline pattern. The path from here can take two probable patterns. Open lower and repeat the five waves down from 1479 to 1431 dropping to 1415 area for an ABC retest of the low. Or it can continue on up from the open to near the upper bands at 1484 to 1479. The better quality low would be the drop to 1415 by Friday. The best buy now will be the next low like the one we just saw.

8-29-07, Intraday

Today is breaking the 1998 20% delcine pattern. It would have to drop to new lows by the close to keep it alive, odds are we are making a low here. Notice the two charts lower bands are finally aligned at 1435? Short term resistance is at the two charts moving averages. At 12:30 it sure looks like we dodged the crash pattern and by this Friday the low should be finalized at 1435 area. At this hour we have as good a low pattern as you can get.

Wednesday, 8-29-07

The set up for a low is now in place. If the 1998 pattern was not in play this is as good a set up as it gets. Wednesday if 1425 is not traded below once a full 60 minutes of trading occurs above the 60 minute chart lower band we have a low. If 1425 is traded below the 1998 20% decline pattern is alive and well.

8-28-07 Intraday

Getting close to a buy situation. The 60 minute is below 1.0, the 120 hour stochastic is at 3.05. Note the spread between the 60 - 120 minute charts lower band is now 1449 to 1435? Solid support is now at 1435. Odds are good we will see a lower dip toward the 1440 level either today or early Wednesday. That should be the best spot for a long set up. CAUTION, since we are still in the 1998 drop of 20% pattern should 1431 be traded below this week we could drop to much lower lows so caution is advised.

Tuesday, 8-28-07

Continuing with the four day cycle chart we now have an alignment with the 120 chart moving average at 1456 and the 60 minute lower band at 1452. Tuesdays price projection model has resistance at 1473 – 1479 and support at 1466 to 1460. If we see solid support at 1460 to 1456 and the stochastic on both charts achieves 1.0 or lower odds are good we have a low. Favoring early Wednesday for the low.

8-27-07 Intraday

Projected low range for this week is 1455 to 1431. Monday after three hours trading we can see an alignment at 1452/1447 from the 60-minute chart lower band and the 120 minute ma. The spread from the 120 lower band and the 60 minute lower band should narrow over the next 12-13 hours as the stochastic makes a normal four day cycle low.