Friday, 11-02-07

Thursday did drop to the 1520s as expected, spent three hours sitting on the support. The final 90 minutes it all fell apart busting the monthly up cycle projected low at 1519. Another event occurred Thursday that only happens if a wave three sell off is in progress. The daily 1.618 support level at 1516 was easily busted. You may only see a daily 1.618 level easily busted once every 10 years or so, today we saw one. The pattern can also be just a normal wave A down, B up and C is in progress because a C mimics a (3) wave in the early stages like we are at now. After we see how Friday trades a better read can be had. IF it is a wave (3) daily LONG 1516 will not be traded above until the “iii” wave is completed near 1476. Therefore monitor daily LONG Friday for clues.

If a wave (3) to 1412 is underway then daily down test at 1496 will be traded below Friday.

Notice price is solidly below the lower band on the 60 minute chart? Notice the upper and lower bands are expanding? No bottom can form until they stop expanding and a full 60 minute bar trades above the lower band.

Thursday, 11-01-07

We got the usual knee jerk reactions in both directions after the FOMC as the big institutions battled it out alright. We still have the old JOBS report drama to deal with Friday. After that is out of the way it now looks like the mid 1520s will be next Wednesdays support area. Note the 27 hour lower band and the 120 minute moving average are at 1525?

Wednesday, 10-31-07

Tuesdays low touched the 27 hour ma and bounced slightly. Wednesday is a news “anomaly” event day in the morning and at 2:15 PM. The projected high for the day is 1540 if the day trades normal. The FOMC policy in the past has generated sharp knee jerk reactions in both directions. After the initial knee jerks the bias turns down until 11-07 with 1515 area as support.

Tuesday, 10-30-07

Monday opened higher to the super critical 1543 area and dropped back quickly spending the remainder of the day trading in a narrow range on low volume. After the FOMC policy statement Wed weekly cycles are due to turn down bias. If that turn down can hold above the 1522 to 1516 zones on the 60/120 minute charts we should get the run at 1600 by Thanksgiving. If that support fails the top may be in at the 1576 high. I favor support holds.