Monday, 9-17-07

Late in the day Monday to mid day Tuesday time runs out on the weekly up cycle and turns to down cycle for options expiration week. This weeks projections give us a shorting into window of 1487 to 1512 for the cash index. Support for the week runs from 1462 to 1437. This should be a wild ride week with FOMC policy and options expiration to create volatility. Even though the odds are with the August 16th low being a multi month low we still have the seasonal danger of an October surprise to deal with. We are long from 1430/1450 with a 1406 as the stop for long term investors looking for a 10% rally if the October surprise does not stop us out.

Friday, 9-14-07

SnP did not get to an oversold value; it was forced to rally to the 120 minute upper band due to huge buying of SnP futures from 07:30 in the morning. No long scalp today, however I did make a small short trade from the high. Should have held it as after hours have dropped six more points. Friday is a tough call, the projected high is at 1496 for Friday and the weekly projected high is at 1499 so it remains an open door for that area. If we do get a 27 hour cycle drop the 1468 moving averages will be solid support.

Thursday, 9-13-07

The SP-500 moved on up to the upper band at 1480 later in the afternoon, shorted it there for a 6 point scalp. Still expecting the index to drop to the 1462 area for a long position scalp. Note the 60 minute is rapidly getting oversold while the 120 minute just has a minor tailing down decline? Odds are this dip is just a short term dip and we will only see the 60 minute get oversold then move on up to the 1500 areas no later than 9-17-07.

Intraday, 9-12-07

Markets opened higher into daily resistance and have turned lower. This is a good sell signal short term, looking to buy near daily projected support at 1462 +/- 3 points. Note the 60 min chart moving average is at this same area, should be solid support there.

Wednesday, 9-12-07

At 2:00 PM Tuesday a sudden and huge surge of futures buying pushed the SnP above the wave one low at 1466.50 negating the crash pattern, whew, that was close. Wednesday should have a down bias and be a slow day with 1462 support. There is also a remote chance it pops up to the 1482 upper band on the 60 minute chart before dropping to the ma. If it drops to near 1460 early in the day a long scalp will be my strategy for the day.

The markets should now continue trading higher until the day before the FOMC meeting.

Tuesday, 9-11-07

The SnP did not give a quality bottom at the low Monday. If this bounce fails at the 1463 to 1468 moving average zone risk of the crash pattern remains valid. If the index can get above 1468 today and continue on up to the 1490 area it should continue to 1540 by the FOMC meeting. If time was not in the crash window I would have bought the low at future 1451 area Monday, to much risk with a low quality bottom within a crash window.