Thursday saw another last 90 minute rescue, trade lower all day then get saved by the bell continues. That save by the bell has moved a full hour above the lower band so a bottom is now possible. From here the market is at decision point. If it trades above 1485 today it can still go to 1605. Drops below the lower band again it goes to 1415 and the up side is done.
The 1489 double bottom was negated Wednesday as the collapse of the dollar, GMs huge loss, Gold skyrocketing, oil approaching 100 dollars just hammered the markets all day and it should continue today to at least 1459 area. The drop below 1489 does open the door to the 1415 target mentioned previously. Again no low can occur until a full hour trades above the 60 minute lower band.
Tuesday the last 90 minutes negated any drop below 1489 as a wave five, a double bottom has formed at 1489. Now we find out if the 1530s resistance can be overcome by 11-16-07, yes-continue on up toward 1605, no- risk down to 1415.
A double bottom has formed at the 1490 area. That could be a wave one down within five waves to the 1415 area so we are now on major top watch. Today the two moving averages form a significant resistance zone at 1516 to 1525. For the week resistance is at 1521-1528. Any drop below 1489 is now a major bearish event, any bounce stall below 1533 is a major bearish event into options expiration 11-16-07. That give us nine days of major top watch.
Friday the 12:30 hour traded a full hour above the 60 minute chart lower band stabilizing the down trend. Monday we may see a slightly positive open then lower lows. If the lower low is below 1490 risk a drop to 1415 becomes very real. If the low is above 1490 then resistance is at 1520s. A slightly positive open then below 1490 is favored.
Ball Ground, 45 miles N of Atlanta, Cherokee County, Georgia
Larry Tomlinson has been involved in technical analysis
of the Markets since 1986. His system of four technical
methods combined with the five Market Risk Models
allows the investor to minimize loss of capital during periods
of high risk to market declines.
My approach to investing is unique; risk to capital
loss is my first screen when investment decisions are made.
Return is then given careful analysis. My methods combine
four technical analysis tools to identify the trend of price action
and forecast the most probable path the market will follow.
Five risk models identify three levels of risk and stock-money
market percentage allocations are based on the total level
of risk to capital loss.
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