Saturday, 8-25-07

Friday I stated “we may get one more high as it is possible the diagonal "5" wave is not completed. Wave "iv" of a diagonal must trade into wave "ii" zone and the low Thursday did trade into that zone”.

Fridays trading trashed the diagonal wave five. The NYSE index has now generated a very high degree of upside momentum negating the more bearish wave counts. If we can get past Monday without a crash that negates the 1998 pattern. If you will go back to Monday 8-20-07 post and print that chart here is what last weeks trading has revealed. Move the wave “B” from the March 2007 low to the August 2007 low. Wave “A” remains at the February 2007 high. The March 2007 low and the August 2007 low form a “B” wave flat correction. The SnP is now on the way to a wave “C” = “A” from 1367 during the week of 12-03-07 to 12-07-07. From now on this is the focus.

Looking at the 60 and 120 minute charts Notice the high at 8-20-07 walked the ceiling of the stochastic indicator?
Note we have not seen that happen for a low yet. Over the next week or so we will see the index top near 1500 then start a correction. Odds are the 120 minute lower band will align with the 60 minute chart lower band and that is where long positions can be taken with low risk for the run at 1605.

Friday, 8-24-07

The 18:01 futures spike of 10 points drifted another 5 points higher overnight. At the cash open the futures premium forced five minute of buy programs that pushed the index to a 1472 high, right at 1473 resistance. A slow drift lower four hours then bounced back to close right at the VTL trend line. Friday we may get one more high as it is possible the diagonal "5" wave is not completed. Wave "iv" of a diagonal must trade into wave "ii" zone and the low Thursday did trade into that zone. It is also possible the wave topped at 1472 and we have a 1, and 2 wave down completed. Fridays trading should clear this up.

Thursday, 8-23-07

The last 45 minutes of trading saw the SP-500 index push above and close above 1459 resistance. At 18:00 when overnight Globex opened SnP futures popped 10 points and when Asia opened at 19:00 they opened up 3% so Thursday should be an interesting day for sure. Anomalies continue to overule normal cycles and technical methods. Thursday resistance is at 1473, support is at 1447. On the chart we can see a diagonal wave 5 that is nearly completed and a drop to near 1418 is the normal expectation. That 10 point pop by the futures indicates somebody knows something we do not know so we will find out Thursday morning.

Wednesday Intraday

SnP-500 has traded up to the 1459 cash area and stalled as expected. The 120 minute chart stochastic has finally turned down indicated both charts should now drop to normal oversold. Still looking for a drop to the 1415 area this week.

Wednesday, 8-22-07

Tuesday the SP-500 did trade up into the 1449-1456 projected window for shorting positions. The market did drop 12 points however it bounced back more than it would if the top window zone was a quality top. Notice how the highs of each hour did stall at the regression channel upper limit as expected. It looks like the market remains under the influence of a rate cut anomaly and is not trading as it normally would. The cycles are calling for a drop into the 50 to 62 percent retrace zone by Friday at 1413 to 1403. Projections for Wednesday, resistance from 1456 to 1459, support from 1436 to 1408. Sign up for email notification as some days I will post an intra day comment.

Tuesday, 8-21-07

The market is four day cycle solid overbought. In the morning if we see a higher open into the daily down cycle projected high 1449 to resistance at weekly projected down cycle high 1456 we should see a drop to near 1415 to 1408. That higher open would give the advance off the low a possible five wave up look. From a higher high we should then see a slow sell off the remainder of the week to work off the four day cycle overbought condition. Note the first chart to the left is a 27 hour chart and the chart to the right is the same chart with 120 minutes time per bar instead of 60 minutes. The bands define max resistance and support this week.

Intraday, 8-20-07

SnP-500 in consolidation mode today, short term retrace of the advance off the 1369 low. My analysis for the next 5-6 trading days will be to determine if a major low is in or was it just the first low of a larger decline. I can say the 1369 low was the best technical low since the twin lows of 2002/2003. Chart is a short term cycle and technical look at the four day cycle.