Friday, 11-09-07

Thursday saw another last 90 minute rescue, trade lower all day then get saved by the bell continues. That save by the bell has moved a full hour above the lower band so a bottom is now possible. From here the market is at decision point. If it trades above 1485 today it can still go to 1605. Drops below the lower band again it goes to 1415 and the up side is done.

Thursday, 11-08-07

The 1489 double bottom was negated Wednesday as the collapse of the dollar, GMs huge loss, Gold skyrocketing, oil approaching 100 dollars just hammered the markets all day and it should continue today to at least 1459 area. The drop below 1489 does open the door to the 1415 target mentioned previously. Again no low can occur until a full hour trades above the 60 minute lower band.

Wednesday, 11-07-07

Tuesday the last 90 minutes negated any drop below 1489 as a wave five, a double bottom has formed at 1489. Now we find out if the 1530s resistance can be overcome by 11-16-07, yes-continue on up toward 1605, no- risk down to 1415.

Tuesday, 11-06-07

A double bottom has formed at the 1490 area. That could be a wave one down within five waves to the 1415 area so we are now on major top watch. Today the two moving averages form a significant resistance zone at 1516 to 1525. For the week resistance is at 1521-1528. Any drop below 1489 is now a major bearish event, any bounce stall below 1533 is a major bearish event into options expiration 11-16-07. That give us nine days of major top watch.

Monday, 11-05-07

Friday the 12:30 hour traded a full hour above the 60 minute chart lower band stabilizing the down trend. Monday we may see a slightly positive open then lower lows. If the lower low is below 1490 risk a drop to 1415 becomes very real. If the low is above 1490 then resistance is at 1520s. A slightly positive open then below 1490 is favored.

Friday, 11-02-07

Thursday did drop to the 1520s as expected, spent three hours sitting on the support. The final 90 minutes it all fell apart busting the monthly up cycle projected low at 1519. Another event occurred Thursday that only happens if a wave three sell off is in progress. The daily 1.618 support level at 1516 was easily busted. You may only see a daily 1.618 level easily busted once every 10 years or so, today we saw one. The pattern can also be just a normal wave A down, B up and C is in progress because a C mimics a (3) wave in the early stages like we are at now. After we see how Friday trades a better read can be had. IF it is a wave (3) daily LONG 1516 will not be traded above until the “iii” wave is completed near 1476. Therefore monitor daily LONG Friday for clues.

If a wave (3) to 1412 is underway then daily down test at 1496 will be traded below Friday.

Notice price is solidly below the lower band on the 60 minute chart? Notice the upper and lower bands are expanding? No bottom can form until they stop expanding and a full 60 minute bar trades above the lower band.

Thursday, 11-01-07

We got the usual knee jerk reactions in both directions after the FOMC as the big institutions battled it out alright. We still have the old JOBS report drama to deal with Friday. After that is out of the way it now looks like the mid 1520s will be next Wednesdays support area. Note the 27 hour lower band and the 120 minute moving average are at 1525?