Friday, 10-12-07

The SnP did top at the 1572/1574 area and dropped sharply to the 60 minute lower band. Amazing is the fact we still have not had a quality top or bottom. Today we have 1536-1533 as the significant support and 1560 as significant resistance. While not favored any top near the 200 day Bollinger band can be the top for this market and todays high popped above the band and tanked so it could be a significant top.

My analysis of the market has been and continues to be year 2000 top was the top and this top is an Elliott wave AB top that will be followed by a drop to the area 1994 traded in and it will get there quickly. You can see my analysis at this web page.

http://marketcharts.homestead.com/WAV.html

Thursday, 10-11-07

Thursday has an up bias with 1572/1574 as the 7th wave high target. Odds are this 7th wave target will be taken out next week however once this 1572/74 zone is achieved risk becomes higher than it has been since the August low. If the lower band at 1548 is taken out today or Friday a drop to at least 1530 should occur, that holds we can still make the run at 1600-1635. Many cycle analysts are looking for an October crash like decline from the high of next week however I am not one of them, still looking for the high in November at 1600-1635 zone.

Wednesday, 10-10-07

The market continues to rally extending the 9-25 low into a 7 moves pattern with 1574 as the final target level for wave 7. Maybe we can finally get a quality pattern as 1574 is achieved as both charts stochastic is in position to achieve 99 today.

Tuesday, 10-09-07

Monday trading was very slow due to the holiday so today will be more revealing. Recall a cycle low was due 10-08/09 so today if we can get the 120 minute stochastic near zero and not take out 1540 in the process the market is set up for a 40 point run up to 1580. If Mondays dip was all the low gets us then the market is breaking out toward the 1605 to 1635 AB cycle top. Today is a very important trading day. Below 1540 it drops to 1500 and above 1557 it goes to 1600.

Monday, 10-08-07

Fridays knee jerk reaction to the jobs report pushed the markets higher instead of lower as expected. Monday must now trade lower than Thursdays high with 1542 to 1525 cash index the zone to trade into or else we have a serious anomaly extension. Extensions are extremely risky as they will reverse with no warning and take out the entire extension range so fast there is no escape. July 27th was a classic example of that. If the cash does drop into the 1542-1525 zone Monday it should then bottom, reverse and trade to new highs by the 15th to 17th.

Notice the two charts moving averages are at 1545 to 1540 and the lower bands are at 1532 to 1522?

Thursday, 10-04-07

The market did open weak and remained weak on very low volume Wednesday. The down turn should continue on down toward an alignment with the 60 minute chart and 120 minute lower bands with 1510 about as low as it will go by Monday. Once we have a quality low buying for the run at new highs is expected. Once price is trading below the 120 min average at 1532 the 1524 and 1513 bands should merge somewhere near 1515-1520 areas.

Wednesday, 10-03-07

The SnP 500 does not look like it will get much higher than 1551 if it even gets that high. The index has the look of a flat correction since the high on 9-19-07. That high was the last quality signal worthy of an option trade. The low at 1507 was not a good quality low and this high at the 1550 area is not a quality high. If this is a wave four flat then a drop back near 1515-1500 will bottom by Monday then rocket back up to a new high as flats are bullish patterns. If the index opens weak and remains weak late in the day then be alert for the drop toward 1515 by Monday and be ready to buy that drop is the strategy.