Thanks for the comments

Thanks for love people. I started this blog to demonstrate that technical analysis works. I started at the August low and took it to the Oct high then down to 1415 near perfection all the way. I was hoping to get a dialog going, a phone call, an email something and got none of that so I am closing the blog.

In early November I was calling for the drop to 1415. OK, now here is where traders get in trouble. There are always two paths to take from a support level like 1415. One is bullish and one is bearish. If a trader has a bearish bias he will not pay any attention to the bullish path, he is reinforced to his bias by the bearish path. If this 1415 area had failed the next target was 1350 area so the trader will buy a large dollar value of puts looking forward to the 1350 path. Then the market takes the bullish path to 1490 resistance and the trader blames the analysts. I have seen this happen so many times so I know it is a fact.

The chart displays a Fibonacci 377 day Bollinger band with support and resistance with targets if 1415 area had failed to support. The upper band should not be traded above now for many months as the market will work off the up momentum from 2006 low to 2007 high.

Good luck to all and if you wish call me, its free.

Larry

THE END

Shutting down this blog due to no interest. No emails, no phone calls, no comments.

Best,
Larry

Thursday, 11-29-07

Record up day today blew away all resistance up to the weekly projected high at 1469. The favored resistance at 1444 to 1464 was slightly exceeded. The high today hit the intermediate resistance window that goes from 1462 to 1484 with longer term resistance at 1492.

That said where do we go from here? The high today achieved the Fibonacci 2.618 target. When a wave goes that far the retrace is almost always shallow. The minimum retrace would be 1457 and average 1448 then a double top at the low 1470. The weekly up bias starts to weaken between Wednesday after 14:30 to Thursday 12:30. No later than Monday the next weekly down bias begins into 12-07 or 12-10. So we see how this plays out Thursday/Friday.

Wednesday, 11-28-07

Tuesday quickly traded above the lower band putting in a short term bottom. Late today to early Thursday the weekly up bias begins to weaken. We should get another shot at the 1444 to 1454 lower end of the 1444 to 1464 resistance zone. If that holds into Friday we should drop to lower lows.

Tuesday, 11-27-07

After spending three days at the 1415 target level and expecting a bounce to 1444-1464 Monday opened to 1446 and simply tanked. Until a full hour trades above the 60-minute chart lower band no low can form. Market either bounce toward the moving average or continues on down toward the next target at 1350-1330.

Monday, 11-26-07

Friday traded nothing but up and since it was a short trading day with 60-70 percent of participants at home on holiday we cannot have any faith in what happened Friday. This week does have an up cycle bias with 1444 to 1464 as resistance. If this resistance holds into early Thursday I plan on shorting it.

Friday, 11-23-07

Friday the SnP opens at the most significant price level in decades. Notice the close Wednesday sits right on the lower band? The August 16th low close was 1411.27 the 377 day ma is at 1415.89, the .786 retrace from 1370 to 1576 is at 1414 making this 1415 to 1411 zone the dividing line between bull and bear trend. Since Friday is a short holiday trading day Monday will be the most significant day to find support in this zone or bust below it and continue on down to 1350-1330 areas.